“We use a pessimistic scenario. The year-end growth is projected to reach 16 percent. We have arrived at the figure based on the pattern of monthly non-oil/non-gas exports in 2008 by considering weakening demand in destination countries,” she said here on Friday.

Under the optimistic calculation, the 2010 non-oil/non-gas export growth could actually reach 18 percent on assumption that the trend of high export growth could be maintained such was the case with the first semester, she said.

She said the non-oil/non-gas exports were expected to range from US$113 billion to US$115 billion this year. This compared with US$107.8 billion in 2008 and US$97.5 billion in 2009.

The country`s non-oil/non-gas exports in the first seven months of 2010 reached more than US$70 billion.

“We are quite optimistic that we can exceed the level of non-oil/non-gas exports in 2008,” she said.

The optimism was based on the performance of non-oil/non-gas exports in July as well as in the January-July 2010 period, she said.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) said earlier the July 2010 non-oil/non-gas exports reached US$10.6 billion, up 29.5 percent from July 2009.

Cumulatively, non-oil/non-gas exports in the year to July 2010 grew 36.9 percent compared to the same period last year.

In the period of August 2009 to July 2010, the non-oil/non-gas exports grew 22.4 percent compared to the previous period.

Despite an expected shortfall in non-oil/non-gas exports in the second semester due to the global economic slowdown, the minister said she believed the non-oil/non-gas exports would remain high.

“Exports are expected to decline because of global economic slowdown led by the United States whose economic recovery runs at a slow pace,” she said. (*)

“I hope with this movie, the rest of the world can acknowledge Indonesian democracy. Democracy is not just a noun but a process, and there`s something amiss in Indonesia`s democratic processes,” he said at a press conference at the US Embassy on Friday.

Adhyatmika (21), a graduate from Puttnam School of Film, Lasalle College of the Arts, Singapore, said his work was a kind of “dark humor” movie.

“I decided to translate my understanding of Indonesian democracy through a `dark humor` movie because if I tell it in a serious way , people won`t see it. If I put it in humorous package, people are more likely to accept the message,” he said.

US Assistant Cultural Attache Arend C. Zwartjes said the movie was really funny and reflected the message of the competition.

“We wanted to make dialogue about what democracy is. We didn`t want to tell the world about democracy according to our own concept, but we wanted the world to share many concepts of democracy,” he explained.

Adhyatmika`s movie according to Zwartjes, was able to deal with the serious subject of democracy in a funny way.

Mika, as the Indonesian film-maker prefers to be called, earned the prize in the form of a two-week tour of the US next October together with other winners from Iran, Spain, Colombia, Nepal, and Ethiopia. The group will have an interview at Today`s Show at NBC and also a meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

“What drives me to take part in this competition was the chance for the winner to meet Hillary Clinton, and if I meet her, I`ll have an opportunity to tell her about Indonesian democracy,” he said.

The movie was made with minimal budget of less than two million rupiah. It shows an elementary school classroom full of students with various backgrounds such as farmer, policeman, businessman, politician, The teacher asks her students what democracy is, and then one of students tries to answer the question.

“There was really no big obstacle in making the movie except to get the right persons to act and a police uniform,” Mika said laughingly.

Mika admitted in making his movie he was influenced by Wes Anderson, an American movie director who was nominated for a 2001 Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay for “The Royal Tenenbaums”.(*)

International Trade and Industry Minister, Mustapa Mohamed, said the two countries shared the same cultural identity and the relationships were good in terms of trade.

“Business people and Malaysian tourists have been accepted there and we are also hosts to about two million Indonesians here,” he told reporters after a Quran-reading session at his ministry here Thursday.

Mustapa said this when asked to comment on the statement by Indonesia`s President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Thursday.

Susilo has urged the Malaysian government to resolve the border issues between the two countries and advised Indonesians to avoid resorting to extreme acts.

“It is a positive statement and it is my hope we develop closer bilateral economic and trade ties. I also hope the Indonesians appreciate the importance of business relationships with Malaysia,” he said.

He said going forward, both counties were committed to the creation of the Asean Economic Community by 2015.

Exports to Indonesia July this year stood at RM1.41 billion (US$454 million) while imports amounted to RM2.65 billion (US$854 million).(*)

The figure put Australia in the first place among top ten source countries of foreign tourists over the period, head of the Bali provincial statistics office Ida Komang Wisnu said here on Wednesday.

The Australian tourists were made up of 23.81 percent of the overall tourist arrivals in the resort island in the year to July 2010 reaching 1,435,016, he said.

The number of tourist arrivals in the January-July 2010 period represented a 9.90 percent increase compared to the same period last year when the figure was recorded at 1,305,793, he said.

“Most of the Australian tourists came to Bali by direct flights from their country. Only 8,036 of them came to the resort island by cruise liners,” he said.

He said the relatively stable security condition in Bali was one of the factors attracting more and more Australians to visit Bali.

Many Australian tourists considered Bali “their second homes”, he said.

Australia is one of the top ten source countries of foreign tourists for Bali besides China, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore.(*)

“It is about time Indonesia operates air conditioned economy class trains,” Freddy said at the Pasar Senin Station Friday.

The train was named Bogowonto and serves the Senen (Jakarta)- Kutoarjo (Central Java) route.

Freddy said the Bogowonto train was the first economy class train more like a business economy class train designed and built by state-owned railway company PT Industri Kereta Api (INKA).

PT INKA designed the Bogowonto like the already existing economy class trains, except that the seats and floor are more comfortable.

Besides, each of the coaches has a maximum capacity of 80 passengers, while the already existing coaches have a maximum of 106 seats per coach.

The new train has a maximum speed of 100 kilometers per hour, and its technical life is less than 25 years with AC facility.

The new train is also equipped with a power plant with a capacity of 2 x 250 KVA.
PT Kereta Api Indonesia had spent Rp 38.31 billion from the State Budget to build the train(*)

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Countries that have the lowest Gini are those in which incomes are more or less flat across the board. The US, on the other hand, has the highest income inequality per its Gini of 0.38, a phenomenon about to be blatantly abused by changes in the US tax code.

A relevant question here would be whether greater income inequality leads to a higher GDP? As Nielsen points out, “correlation does not imply causation” (a fact long-lost on the market dominant HFT market makers), although an important question is whether an attempt to grow US economic output should be predicated by a push toward further income equality, or a world in which the rich get richer.

As the regression in the chart below would seem to suggest, the latter is what the Obama administration should be aiming for, and may explain why Obama’s advisors have been so hell bent on perpetuating the wealth of those who should have lost everything in the crash of 2008.

Of course, the one exception to the rule is socialist Norway, which has a higher GDP/capita than the US, but which however also happens to be one of the most resource rich countries in the world.

Further observations from Erik Nielsen

Next month the European Q2 GDP numbers are set to be released, and given the continued equivocal manner in which markets and risk sentiment have reacted over the past 6 months, this data may provide more calm, after the European bank stress tests.

Today’s Chart of the Day, however, looks at another dimension of GDP: the distribution of income within countries. It plots the Gini coefficient (a measure of income inequality, with a higher number meaning greater inequality) against the level of GDP per capita in several European countries and the US.

Different income distributions may mean that the type of consumption (luxury goods vs. necessity goods) may differ between countries even if they are as wealthy as each other in aggregate. There are also a number of channels through which income dispersion may affect growth, although we would note that correlation is not causation and economic theory is ambiguous about the direction of any relationship.

Although richer on a per capita basis than most European economies, the US has a greater dispersion of income than any country in our sample.

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In June 2010 alone, more than 613.4 thousand foreign tourists visited the country, an 11.41 percent increase compared to the same period last year, BPS Chief Rusman Heriawan said here on Monday.

Compared to May, the number of tourist arrivals in June slightly rose 2.23 percent, he said.

The number of tourists visiting Bali via Ngurah Rai Airport in June 2010 reached 224.7 thousand, an increase of 12.07 percent compared to June 2009 or 12.68 percent to May 2010, he said.

The rise in the number of tourist arrivals in June raised the average occupancy rates of star-rated hotels in 17 of the country`s 33 provinces to 53.37 percent, up 0.73 point compared to June 2009 or 2.15 point to May 2010, he said.

On average the foreign tourists stayed at the star-rated hotels for 1.96 days in June 2010, down 0.04 day from June 2009, he said.

The BPS also noted that the number of domestic air passengers in June reached 3.5 million, an increase of 0.43 percent from a month earlier.

Meanwhile, the number of foreign-bound air passengers in June rose 14.06 percent to 867.3 thousand compared to the previous month.

In the January-June 2010 period, the number of domestic and foreign-bound air passengers increased 20.99 percent to 20 million and 25.96 percent to 4.5 million respectively compared to the same period last year.(*)

“It is a study we are carrying out in the framework of integrating economies in one region such as the ASEAN community and facilitating transactions. It is still an initial study done to see its prospects and the possible existence of opposition,” Difi A Johansyah, BI head of public relations, said here on Monday.

He said redenomination was different from the currency reform once done by Indonesia. It must be prepared over a long period and in a thorough way, including its familiarization based upon the needs of the people and the economy to avoid a negative impact that would hurt the people.

“If it is really to be carried out, its benefit must really be felt. Therefore, until now the issue is still a mere topic of study and research by Bank Indonesia,” he said.

He said many countries had successfully done it. He said redenomination was only done when inflation and inflation expectations were stable and low. The essence was simplifying accounting and system of payment wihtout causing any impact on the economy.

“Other conditions needed for its success are perception and understanding of the people based on the real needs of the people. Based on the experience of other countries the move would not result in printing of new money as the banknotes would remain the same. As this is mere a numerical simplification what will change is the accounting system and information technology,” he said.

He said redenomindation was different from currency reform which cuts the money`s value against goods. He said redenomination meanwhile also cut the money`s value and the goods` value.

He said redenomination would take at least five years for transition and during the period traders would be required to attach labels depicting payment in old and new bills so that public control was assured.

In Turkey, the program was only realized after a national commitment and other conditions were met such as a controlled fiscal deficit.(*)

Over the period, Indonesia suffered a deficit in its trade with a number of countries particularly China but trade with other countries still favored Indonesia, BPS Chief Rusman Heriawan said on Monday.

Data from the BPS show Indonesia suffered a deficit of US$2.95 billion with China and US$1.69 billion with Thailand in the first half of 2010.

Rusman said the deficit in trade with Thailand was particularly because Indonesia imported a great deal of vegetables and fruits from the neighboring country.

During the first semester of 2010, Indonesia also recorded a trade deficit of US$856.3 million with Australia and US$218.6 million with Singapore, he said.

He said in the January-June 2010 period Indonesia`s balance of trade recorded a slight surplus from crude oil but suffered a deficit from processed oil.

“In the first semester, we saw a slight surplus of US$333.6 million in crude oil trade so we still can be categorized as a net exporter. However, processed oil caused a deficit of US$6.4 billion to our balance of trade. We spent much of our foreign exchange on fuel oil imports,” he said.

However, Indonesia`s gas exports in the first half of 2010 jumped to US$6.491 billion while its gas imports reached US$348.7 million.

Rusman said Indonesia`s imports in the first semester of 2010 rose significantly by 51.99 percent to US$62.89 billion from a year earlier.

Non-oil/non-gas imports in the January-June 2010 period reached US$49.77 billion, an increase of 46.52 percent from the same period last year.

Oil and gas imports in the first half of 2010 meanwhile jumped 77.10 percent to US$13.12 billion from a year earlier.

In the January-June 2010 period the import of consumer goods rose 61.14 percent to US$4.652 billion, raw and auxiliary materials 55.90 percent to US$46.222 billion, and capital goods 35.91 percent to US$12.016 billion compared to the same period last year.(*)

The world record was broken at a National Makan Patita communal food feast with 2,010 different fish recipes from 30 kinds of fish caught from Maluku waters.

“The National Makan Patita feast with 2,010 fish recipes, organized by the Ambon City Family Welfare Movement in coordination with its district chapters has broken not only the national record but also the world`s,” Paulus Pangka of the Indonesian Museum of Records (MURI) said here on Monday.

Paulus said Maluku broke the record of 4433 by serving 2,010 kinds of fish dishes which also met MURI`s halal criteria.

The food festival was held as part of the public`s contribution to the ongoing international marine event of Sail Banda 2010 whose peak event would fall on Tuesday, August 3, and be attended by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to declare Maluku as a national fish barn.

With every district in the province represented by a stand to present its unique fish dishes, the Makan Patita food festival spanned from the state treasury building to Trikora Monument on Diponegoro street.

“Previously we also grilled fishes that formed a 5.3 km long line, or the longest record with only one kind of fish, but this time we serve 2,010 recipes from 30 kinds of fish,” Paulus said.

Meanwhile, Coordinating Minister for People`s Welfare Agung Laksono on the occasion said Maluku had a wide sea territory and was rich in marine resources.

“In this development era, the community`s diet will improve and vary, and therefore Maluku has been able to create various fish dishes in such a fish food festival like this,” Laksono said.(*)